Other

Who will be arrested in 2026? — Will John Brennan be arrested before Jan 2027?

34.4%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range8.5pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Kalshi
37¢
bid 36¢ · ask 37¢
24h vol $193
Trade on Kalshi
Best price
Polymarket
28¢
bid 21¢ · ask 35¢
24h vol $64
Trade on Polymarket

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Who will be arrested before 2027?' ↔ 'Who will be arrested in 2026?' (score 0.60, outcome match 0.67).

Kalshi ticker
KXARREST-27JAN-JBRE
Resolves 1/1/2027
Polymarket condition
0x087d55571a3847d9
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