Politics / Elections

WA-03 primary: who will advance? — Will John Saulie-Rohman advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 457 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

0.7%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

1¢

bid 0¢ · ask 2¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

0¢

bid 0¢ · ask 1¢

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'WA-03 Primary First Place' ↔ 'WA-03 primary: who will advance?' (score 0.50, outcome match 0.43).

Kalshi ticker

KXWAPRIMARY-0326-JSAU

Resolves 11/3/2027

Polymarket condition

0x19e97e3efa355263…

Resolves 8/4/2026

Pro

Order book depth, real-time dislocation alerts, correlated markets, and cross-venue portfolio margin — coming soon.