Politics / Elections
Guam Governor winner? — Who will win the 2026 Guam gubernatorial election? — Josh Tenorio
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 460 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
37.0%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Guam Governor Democratic Primary Winner' ↔ 'Guam Governor winner?' (score 0.50, outcome match 0.83).
Kalshi ticker
KXGUAMGOV-26-JTEN
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0x8d240de0d0ab5a55…
Resolves 8/1/2026
Pro
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