Politics / Elections
Winnipeg mayoral election winner? — Will Joshua Pagdato win the 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
0.3%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range3.2pp dislocation
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P
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Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Winnipeg Mayoral Election' ↔ 'Winnipeg mayoral election winner?' (score 0.60, outcome match 1.00, llm=same).
Kalshi ticker
KXWINNIPEGMAYOR-26OCT28-JPAG
Resolves 10/28/2027
Polymarket condition
0xcc7db45da7b91a16…
Resolves 10/29/2026
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