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Argentina presidential election: first round winner? — Will Juan Grabois win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
2.5%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range4.0pp dislocation
K
P
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Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Argentina Presidential Election First Round Winner' ↔ 'Argentina presidential election: first round winner?' (score 0.75, outcome match 0.57, llm=uncertain).
Kalshi ticker
KXARGENTINAPRES1R-27OCT24-JGRA
Resolves 10/23/2028
Polymarket condition
0x3f57e93138c87a57…
Resolves 10/25/2027
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