Politics / Elections
New Jersey Senate winner? — Will Republicans win the Senate race in New Jersey? — Justin Murphy
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
2.4%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
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Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'New Jersey Senate Election Winner' ↔ 'New Jersey Senate winner?' (score 0.67, outcome match 0.50, llm=uncertain).
Kalshi ticker
SENATENJ-26-R
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0x378f6ce7b8167060…
Resolves 11/4/2026
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