Politics / 2028

2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Who will win the next presidential election? — Kamala Harris

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

4.4%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history

Best price

Kalshi

4¢

bid 4¢ · ask 4¢

24h vol $35

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

4¢

bid 4¢ · ask 5¢

24h vol $7,664

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Presidential Election Winner 2028' ↔ '2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?' (score 1.00, outcome match 0.75, llm=same).

Kalshi ticker

KXPRESPERSON-28-KHAR

Resolves 11/7/2029

Polymarket condition

0xb3298af85e00aafa…

Resolves 11/8/2028

Pro

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