Politics / Elections

Vancouver mayoral election winner? — Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
10.0%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range5.5pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Kalshi
16¢
bid 13¢ · ask 18¢
Trade on Kalshi
Best price
Polymarket
10¢
bid · ask 11¢
24h vol $42
Trade on Polymarket

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner' ↔ 'Vancouver mayoral election winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 1.00).

Kalshi ticker
KXVANCOUVERMAYOR-26OCT17-KALL
Resolves 10/17/2027
Polymarket condition
0x574baadddd5ff733
Resolves 10/17/2026
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