Politics / Elections
Texas Senate winner? — Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas? — Ken Paxton
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
36.4%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
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P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Texas Senate Election Winner' ↔ 'Texas Senate winner?' (score 0.60, outcome match 0.50, llm=uncertain).
Kalshi ticker
SENATETX-26-R
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0x94521176f57d2ce8…
Resolves 11/4/2026
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