Politics / Elections

WA-05 primary: who will advance? — Will Kevin Fagan advance in the 2026 WA-05 primary?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 457 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

3.7%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range2.6pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

5¢

bid 2¢ · ask 8¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

2¢

bid 1¢ · ask 4¢

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'WA-05 Primary Winners' ↔ 'WA-05 primary: who will advance?' (score 0.60, outcome match 0.40).

Kalshi ticker

KXWAPRIMARY-0526-KFAG

Resolves 11/3/2027

Polymarket condition

0x79d1be35877d5be5…

Resolves 8/4/2026

Pro

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