Politics / Elections
Montana Senate winner? — Will Republicans win the Senate race in Montana? — Kurt Alme
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
91.8%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
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Kalshi Polymarket
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Montana Senate Election Winner' ↔ 'Montana Senate winner?' (score 0.60, outcome match 0.50, llm=uncertain).
Kalshi ticker
SENATEMT-26-R
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0xd103195d48bf6183…
Resolves 11/4/2026
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