Politics / Elections

MI-01 Democratic nominee? — Will Kyle Blomquist be the Democratic nominee for MI-01?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 457 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

23.0%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range4.5pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

28¢

bid 25¢ · ask 30¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

23¢

bid 22¢ · ask 24¢

24h vol $66

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'MI-01 Democratic Primary Winner' ↔ 'MI-01 Democratic nominee?' (score 0.50, outcome match 1.00).

Kalshi ticker

KXMIPRIMARY-01D26-KBLO

Resolves 11/3/2027

Polymarket condition

0x72164d1367b6a51d…

Resolves 8/4/2026

Pro

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