Politics / Elections
New Mexico Senate winner? — Will Republicans win the Senate race in New Mexico? — Larry E. Marker
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
1.4%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
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Kalshi Polymarket
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'New Mexico Senate Election Winner' ↔ 'New Mexico Senate winner?' (score 0.67, outcome match 0.50, llm=uncertain).
Kalshi ticker
SENATENM-26-R
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0xe8f6367e334e7440…
Resolves 11/4/2026
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