Politics / Elections
CA-12 House winner? — Who will win the 2026 CA-12 House election? — Lateefah Simon
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
93.9%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range2.5pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'CA-12 House Election Winner (Individual)' ↔ 'CA-12 House winner?' (score 0.57, outcome match 0.60).
Kalshi ticker
KXCAELECTION-2612-LSIM
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0xf5679272979bac81…
Resolves 11/3/2026
Pro
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