Politics / Elections
Aguascalientes Governor winner? — Will Leo Montañez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
38.5%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
Sign up free to see how prices have moved
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Aguascalientes Governor Election Winner' ↔ 'Aguascalientes Governor winner?' (score 0.60, outcome match 0.43, llm=uncertain).
Kalshi ticker
KXAGUASCALIENTESGOV-27JUN06-LMON
Resolves 6/6/2028
Polymarket condition
0x2b6e0c3e73aeb1bf…
Resolves 6/7/2027
Pro
Order book depth, real-time dislocation alerts, correlated markets, and cross-venue portfolio margin — coming soon.