Geopolitics

Israeli legislation election winner? — Who will win the next Israeli legislative election? — Likud

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

44.0%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

44¢

bid 39¢ · ask 49¢

24h vol $655

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

44¢

bid 43¢ · ask 45¢

24h vol $8,848

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Israeli Legislative Election Winner' ↔ 'Israeli legislation election winner?' (score 0.50, outcome match 0.40).

Kalshi ticker

KXISRAELKNESSET-26-LIK

Resolves 10/27/2027

Polymarket condition

0xf77fa3e63014f1f7…

Resolves 10/27/2026

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