Politics / Elections

Tallahassee Mayoral Election — Who will win the 2026 Tallahassee, Florida mayoral election? — Loranne Ausley

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

46.2%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range4.5pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

42¢

bid 39¢ · ask 45¢

24h vol $206

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

47¢

bid 46¢ · ask 47¢

24h vol $2,968

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Tallahassee Mayoral Election Winner' ↔ 'Tallahassee Mayoral Election' (score 0.60, outcome match 0.60).

Kalshi ticker

KXTALLAHASSEEMAYOR-26-LAUS

Resolves 8/18/2027

Polymarket condition

0x5e679f25f413ea3f…

Resolves 8/18/2026

Pro

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