Geopolitics
Brazil Presidential election winner? — Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 387 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
61.5%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
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P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Brazil Presidential Election' ↔ 'Brazil Presidential election winner?' (score 0.75, outcome match 1.00).
Kalshi ticker
KXBRPRES-26-LULA
Resolves 10/25/2027
Polymarket condition
0xdf8e2dc5860027de…
Resolves 10/4/2026
Pro
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