Geopolitics
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place — Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
7.6%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
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Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place' ↔ 'Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place' (score 0.78, outcome match 0.89).
Kalshi ticker
KXBRPRESIDENT2-BRPRES26-2-LSIL
Resolves 10/4/2027
Polymarket condition
0x8ee27c276a1bee09…
Resolves 10/4/2026
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