Politics / Elections
Ljubljana mayoral election winner? — Will Luka Mesec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
17.0%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
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Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Ljubljana Mayoral Election Winner' ↔ 'Ljubljana mayoral election winner?' (score 0.57, outcome match 1.00, llm=uncertain).
Kalshi ticker
KXLJUBLJANAMAYOR-26NOV15-LMES
Resolves 11/15/2027
Polymarket condition
0xcf639892d7de2fba…
Resolves 11/16/2026
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