Politics / Elections
CA-29 House winner? — Who will win the 2026 CA-29 House election? — Luz Rivas
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
86.8%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
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0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'CA-29 House Election Winner (Individual)' ↔ 'CA-29 House winner?' (score 0.57, outcome match 0.60).
Kalshi ticker
KXCAELECTION-2629-LRIV
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0xed35e827645ae35a…
Resolves 11/3/2026
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