Geopolitics

Who will win the 2027 French presidential election? — Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

24.3%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range17.8pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

7¢

bid 6¢ · ask 7¢

24h vol $1

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

25¢

bid 22¢ · ask 27¢

24h vol $95

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: '2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?' ↔ 'Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?' (score 0.67, outcome match 1.00).

Kalshi ticker

KXFRENCHPRES-27-MLEP

Resolves 5/30/2028

Polymarket condition

0xa4a28a02e05eae79…

Resolves 4/17/2027

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