Geopolitics

Next French presidential election winner? — Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 397 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

30.9%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range4.1pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

35¢

bid 33¢ · ask 37¢

24h vol $27

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

31¢

bid 31¢ · ask 31¢

24h vol $11,310

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Next French Presidential Election' ↔ 'Next French presidential election winner?' (score 0.60, outcome match 1.00).

Kalshi ticker

KXFRENCHPRES-27-MLEP

Resolves 5/30/2028

Polymarket condition

0x8126317d621047fb…

Resolves 4/30/2027

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