Politics / Elections

Ottawa mayoral election winner? — Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

57.5%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range4.0pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

54¢

bid 51¢ · ask 56¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

57¢

bid 57¢ · ask 58¢

24h vol $731

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner' ↔ 'Ottawa mayoral election winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 1.00).

Kalshi ticker

KXOTTAWAMAYOR-26OCT26-MSUT

Resolves 10/26/2027

Polymarket condition

0xc4aaf626324e7fb7…

Resolves 10/26/2026

Pro

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