Politics / Elections
WA-01 primary: who will advance? — Will Mary Silva advance in the 2026 WA-01 primary?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 457 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
68.8%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range26.5pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'WA-01 Primary Winners' ↔ 'WA-01 primary: who will advance?' (score 0.60, outcome match 0.40).
Kalshi ticker
KXWAPRIMARY-0126-MSIL
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0xc407570f2e86d695…
Resolves 8/4/2026
Pro
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