Politics / Elections
Minas Gerais Governor winner? — Will Mateus Simões win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
16.0%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range6.5pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner' ↔ 'Minas Gerais Governor winner?' (score 0.67, outcome match 1.00).
Kalshi ticker
KXMINASGOV-26OCT04-MSIM
Resolves 10/4/2027
Polymarket condition
0xfa9f31ee9de9bdd9…
Resolves 10/4/2026
Pro
Order book depth, real-time dislocation alerts, correlated markets, and cross-venue portfolio margin — coming soon.