Politics / Elections

Alaska Governor winner? (Person) — Who will win the governorship in Alaska? — Matt Heilala

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

3.3%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range2.4pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

3¢

bid 1¢ · ask 6¢

24h vol $104

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

1¢

bid 1¢ · ask 1¢

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Alaska Governor Election Winner ' ↔ 'Alaska Governor winner? (Person)' (score 0.50, outcome match 0.60).

Kalshi ticker

KXGOVAK-26-MHEI

Resolves 11/3/2027

Polymarket condition

0x9e7789f9f3bb7988…

Resolves 11/3/2026

Pro

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