Politics / Elections
MI-01 Republican nominee? — Will Matthew DenOtter be the Republican nominee for MI-01?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 456 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
5.6%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'MI-01 Republican Primary Winner' ↔ 'MI-01 Republican nominee?' (score 0.50, outcome match 1.00).
Kalshi ticker
KXMIPRIMARY-01R26-MDEN
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0xa255546a12b37947…
Resolves 8/4/2026
Pro
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