Entertainment

Emmy winner: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series — Will Matthew Rhys win Comedy Actor at the Emmy Awards?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

85.1%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range2.5pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

85¢

bid 83¢ · ask 87¢

24h vol $238

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

87¢

bid 87¢ · ask 88¢

24h vol $10

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a comedy series' ↔ 'Emmy winner: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series' (score 0.46, outcome match 0.50).

Kalshi ticker

KXEMMYCACTO-26SEP14-MAT

Resolves 9/14/2027

Polymarket condition

0xd8715a7b57165670…

Resolves 9/14/2026

Pro

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