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Argentina presidential election winner? — Will Mauricio Macri win the next Argentine presidential election?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 373 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

2.2%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range2.7pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

4¢

bid 2¢ · ask 5¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

1¢

bid 1¢ · ask 1¢

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Argentina Presidential Election Winner' ↔ 'Argentina presidential election winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.60).

Kalshi ticker

KXARGENTINAPRES-27OCT30-MMAC

Resolves 10/30/2028

Polymarket condition

0x9e7ff979adcbb3d5…

Resolves 10/24/2027

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