Politics / Elections

CA-14 House winner? — Who will win the 2026 CA-14 House election? — Melissa Hernandez

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

7.2%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range4.9pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

11¢

bid 10¢ · ask 12¢

24h vol $324

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

6¢

bid 1¢ · ask 11¢

24h vol $1,241

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'CA-14 House Election Winner (Individual)' ↔ 'CA-14 House winner?' (score 0.57, outcome match 0.60).

Kalshi ticker

KXCAELECTION-2614-MHER

Resolves 11/3/2027

Polymarket condition

0x797b22d1fede92ae…

Resolves 11/3/2026

Pro

Order book depth, real-time dislocation alerts, correlated markets, and cross-venue portfolio margin — coming soon.