Politics / Elections
WA-05 primary: who will advance? — Will Michael Baumgartner advance in the 2026 WA-05 primary?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 457 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
97.8%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'WA-05 Primary Winners' ↔ 'WA-05 primary: who will advance?' (score 0.60, outcome match 0.40).
Kalshi ticker
KXWAPRIMARY-0526-MBAU
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0x5b72b536702eb990…
Resolves 8/4/2026
Pro
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