Politics / Elections

Tallahassee Mayoral Election — Who will win the 2026 Tallahassee, Florida mayoral election? — Michael Foust

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

2.8%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range3.4pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

5¢

bid 1¢ · ask 8¢

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Best price

Polymarket

1¢

bid 0¢ · ask 2¢

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Tallahassee Mayoral Election Winner' ↔ 'Tallahassee Mayoral Election' (score 0.60, outcome match 0.60).

Kalshi ticker

KXTALLAHASSEEMAYOR-26-MFOU

Resolves 8/18/2027

Polymarket condition

0xaed52c562268e329…

Resolves 8/18/2026

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