Politics / Elections
Kraków mayoral election winner? — Will Monika Piątkowska win the 2026 special election for Mayor of Kraków?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
2.6%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range2.1pp dislocation
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Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Kraków Mayoral Election Winner' ↔ 'Kraków mayoral election winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.67, llm=same).
Kalshi ticker
KXKRAKOWMAYOR-26SEP27-MPIA
Resolves 9/27/2027
Polymarket condition
0x7954fd8bb4383697…
Resolves 9/28/2026
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