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Nigel Farage announces departure as Reform UK leader? — Will Nigel Farage announce their departure as Leader of Reform UK before Sep 1, 2026?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 122 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

19.0%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range13.5pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

6¢

bid 4¢ · ask 7¢

24h vol $5

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

19¢

bid 18¢ · ask 20¢

24h vol $1,885

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?' ↔ 'Nigel Farage announces departure as Reform UK leader?' (score 0.55, outcome match 0.46).

Kalshi ticker

KXFARAGEOUTREFORM-26JUL-SEP01

Resolves 9/1/2026

Polymarket condition

0xef1904f76f205933…

Resolves 12/31/2026

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