Politics / Elections
Aguascalientes Governor winner? — Will Nora Ruvalcaba Gámez win the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial election?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
22.3%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range4.5pp dislocation
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Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Aguascalientes Governor Election Winner' ↔ 'Aguascalientes Governor winner?' (score 0.60, outcome match 0.83, llm=same).
Kalshi ticker
KXAGUASCALIENTESGOV-27JUN06-NRUV
Resolves 6/6/2028
Polymarket condition
0xe9abab990c0a1a57…
Resolves 6/7/2027
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