Politics / Elections
FL-25 Democratic nominee? — Will Oliver Larkin be the Democratic nominee for FL-25?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 442 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
9.7%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range3.0pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'FL-25 Democratic Primary Winner' ↔ 'FL-25 Democratic nominee?' (score 0.50, outcome match 1.00).
Kalshi ticker
KXFLPRIMARY-25D26-OLAR
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0x283d526b2eec1663…
Resolves 8/18/2026
Pro
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