Geopolitics

Who will win the 2027 French presidential election? — Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?

7.3%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range13.4pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

1¢

bid 0¢ · ask 1¢

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Polymarket

14¢

bid 8¢ · ask 20¢

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Mapping notes

Event pair: '2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?' ↔ 'Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?' (score 0.67, outcome match 1.00).

Kalshi ticker

KXFRENCHPRES-27-OFAU

Resolves 5/30/2028

Polymarket condition

0xd43d128d435fd9a5…

Resolves 4/17/2027

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