Markets / Finance

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? — Will Open AI or Anthropic IPO first?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 4384 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
89.5%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range5.0pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Best price
Kalshi
85¢
bid 83¢ · ask 86¢
Trade on Kalshi
Polymarket
90¢
bid 89¢ · ask 90¢
24h vol $2,755
Trade on Polymarket

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?' ↔ 'Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?' (score 0.67, outcome match 0.67).

Kalshi ticker
KXOAIANTH-40-ANTH
Resolves 1/1/2040
Polymarket condition
0xc289a877bc155123
Resolves 12/31/2027
Pro
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