Entertainment

Emmy winner: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie — Will Oscar Isaac win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

63.6%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range5.0pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

66¢

bid 60¢ · ask 71¢

24h vol $500

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

61¢

bid 60¢ · ask 61¢

24h vol $307

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie' ↔ 'Emmy winner: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie' (score 0.54, outcome match 0.60).

Kalshi ticker

KXEMMYLIMITEDACTO-26SEP14-OSC

Resolves 9/14/2027

Polymarket condition

0xa273dc84e8f52c91…

Resolves 9/14/2026

Pro

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