Politics / Elections

Vancouver mayoral election winner? — Will Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

16.8%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range4.8pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

22¢

bid 18¢ · ask 25¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

17¢

bid 16¢ · ask 17¢

24h vol $1

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner' ↔ 'Vancouver mayoral election winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 1.00).

Kalshi ticker

KXVANCOUVERMAYOR-26OCT17-PFRY

Resolves 10/17/2027

Polymarket condition

0x1d4d4b7b17f1649e…

Resolves 10/17/2026

Pro

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