Politics
Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? — Will Pete Hegseth leaves Secretary of Defense in before 2027?
24.3%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range3.5pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?' ↔ 'Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?' (score 0.71, outcome match 0.40, llm=uncertain).
Kalshi ticker
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-PHEG
Resolves 1/1/2027
Polymarket condition
0xeae757a623cf6a8e…
Resolves 1/1/2027
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