Politics
Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? — Will Pete Hegseth be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 752 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
13.0%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range4.8pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?' ↔ 'Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?' (score 0.60, outcome match 0.40).
Kalshi ticker
KXCABOUT-26MAY22-PHEG
Resolves 1/20/2029
Polymarket condition
0x1178bf565b7496cd…
Resolves 12/31/2026
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