Politics / Elections
Nebraska Senate winner? — Will Republicans win the Senate race in Nebraska? — Pete Ricketts
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
70.2%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range2.5pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Nebraska Senate Election Winner ' ↔ 'Nebraska Senate winner?' (score 0.60, outcome match 0.50).
Kalshi ticker
SENATENE-26-R
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0x71e9f5312aac62bd…
Resolves 11/3/2026
Pro
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