Other

Nigerian presidential election winner? — Who will win the next Nigerian presidential election? — Peter Obi

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 408 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

35.5%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range4.0pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

34¢

bid 31¢ · ask 36¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

38¢

bid 37¢ · ask 38¢

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Nigerian Presidential Election Winner' ↔ 'Nigerian presidential election winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.75).

Kalshi ticker

KXPRESNIGERIA-27-POBI

Resolves 2/28/2028

Polymarket condition

0xe00cb03a0aefe8f4…

Resolves 1/16/2027

Pro

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