Politics / Elections
Estonia parliamentary election winner? — Will Reform Party win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
13.5%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range8.5pp dislocation
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P
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Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Estonia Parliamentary Election Winner' ↔ 'Estonia parliamentary election winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.71, llm=same).
Kalshi ticker
KXESTONIAPARLI-27MAR07-REF
Resolves 3/6/2028
Polymarket condition
0xba26982a247cb9c6…
Resolves 3/7/2027
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