Geopolitics

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place — Will Renan Santos finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

12.6%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range4.4pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

17¢

bid 14¢ · ask 20¢

24h vol $40

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

13¢

bid 13¢ · ask 13¢

24h vol $11,719

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place' ↔ 'Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place' (score 0.78, outcome match 0.83).

Kalshi ticker

KXBRPRESIDENT2-BRPRES26-2-RSAN

Resolves 10/4/2027

Polymarket condition

0x83030b249525db4c…

Resolves 10/4/2026

Pro

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