Geopolitics

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place — Will Renan Santos finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

19.8%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range3.8pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

16¢

bid 15¢ · ask 17¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

20¢

bid 18¢ · ask 22¢

24h vol $47

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place' ↔ 'Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place' (score 0.78, outcome match 0.83).

Kalshi ticker

KXBRPRESIDENT2-BRPRES26-2-RSAN

Resolves 10/4/2027

Polymarket condition

0x83030b249525db4c…

Resolves 10/4/2026

Pro

Order book depth, real-time dislocation alerts, correlated markets, and cross-venue portfolio margin — coming soon.