Geopolitics

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place — Will Renan Santos finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

52.0%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range16.5pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

36¢

bid 32¢ · ask 39¢

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Polymarket

52¢

bid 46¢ · ask 58¢

24h vol $635

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Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place' ↔ 'Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place' (score 0.78, outcome match 0.83).

Kalshi ticker

KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3-RSAN

Resolves 10/4/2027

Polymarket condition

0xcba20965509d04b5…

Resolves 10/4/2026

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