Geopolitics

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place — Will Renan Santos finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

67.0%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range4.0pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

63¢

bid 59¢ · ask 67¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

67¢

bid 66¢ · ask 68¢

24h vol $49

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place' ↔ 'Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place' (score 0.78, outcome match 0.83).

Kalshi ticker

KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3-RSAN

Resolves 10/4/2027

Polymarket condition

0xcba20965509d04b5…

Resolves 10/4/2026

Pro

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