Other

What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year? — Will Rene be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

34.5%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range34.0pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

1¢

bid 0¢ · ask 1¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

35¢

bid 3¢ · ask 66¢

24h vol $39

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?' ↔ 'What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year?' (score 0.71, outcome match 0.56).

Kalshi ticker

KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01ATL-REN

Resolves 12/1/2026

Polymarket condition

0x2a88061dfa3d7e97…

Resolves 12/1/2026

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