Politics / Elections

CT-03 House winner? — Will Republican win the House race for CT-03? — Republican party

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

6.5%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range3.5pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

3¢

bid 2¢ · ask 5¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

7¢

bid 6¢ · ask 7¢

24h vol $634

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'CT-03 House Election Winner' ↔ 'CT-03 House winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.60).

Kalshi ticker

KXHOUSERACE-CT03-26-R

Resolves 11/3/2027

Polymarket condition

0x888801d4d4208d23…

Resolves 11/3/2026

Pro

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