Politics / Elections

MS-02 House winner? — Will Republican win the House race for MS-02? — Republican party

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

7.5%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

7¢

bid 6¢ · ask 8¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

8¢

bid 7¢ · ask 8¢

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'MS-02 House Election Winner' ↔ 'MS-02 House winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.60).

Kalshi ticker

KXHOUSERACE-MS02-26-R

Resolves 11/3/2027

Polymarket condition

0x8a335b146be423c5…

Resolves 11/3/2026

Pro

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